$500M AI rounds. $0 revenue models. We’ve seen this movie before – it ended in 2001.
$500M AI rounds. $0 revenue models. We've seen this movie before - it ended in 2001.Pets.com raised $82M in 2000.Spent $11.8M on a Super Bowl ad.Dead 9 months after IPO.Sound familiar?Today's $500M AI rounds are the same movie. Different cast.Webvan raised $375M. Gone in 2 years.Kozmo raised $280M. Gone in 18 months.What killed them wasn't the idea. It was the model.Demo-first. Revenue-never.The survivor? Zappos. Built on repeat customers. Not VC theater.Now watch AI.→ Your "proprietary" model? Commoditized in 6 months.→ Your enterprise deal? 24 months to close.→ Your burn rate? Unsustainable from day one.Ecommerce had its Amazon.AI has its OpenAI.Founders who turned down $50M acquisitions in 1999 waiting for unicorn valuations?Worth $0 in 2002.History is rhyming loudly.Revenue-first AI companies will be the Zappos of this cycle.Demo-first AI companies will be the Pets.com.The sock puppet was cute though.Are you building for revenue or for the next round?
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